Provide a definition of 200-250 words for one of the following concept: shareholder Primary Model (SHP)/ Shareholder Capitalism, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), “Greenwashing”, Stakeholder Capi

Provide a definition of 200-250 words for one of the following concept: shareholder Primary Model (SHP)/ Shareholder Capitalism, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), “Greenwashing”, Stakeholder Capi
V T H E R EB EL L IO N O F T H E T O O L S I H AV E A W E A K N E S S fo r cyn ica l g ra ffiti. O n e re le va n t to th e h a za rd s o f p ro g re ss is th is: “E a ch tim e h isto ry re p e a ts itse lf, th e p rice g o e s u p .” T h e co lla p se o f th e first civiliza tio n o n e a rth , th e S u m e ria n , a ffe cte d o n ly h a lf a m illio n p e o p le . T h e fa ll o f R o m e a ffe cte d te n s o f m illio n s. If o u rs w e re to fa il, it w o u ld , o f co u rse , b rin g ca ta stro p h e o n b illio n s. S o fa r w e ’ve lo o ke d a t fo u r a n cie n t so cie tie s — S u m e r, R o m e , th e M a ya , E a ste r Isla n d — w h ich , in ro u g h ly a th o u sa n d ye a rs e a ch , w o re o u t th e ir w e lco m e fro m n a tu re a n d co lla p se d . I’ve a lso m e n tio n e d tw o e xce p tio n s, E g yp t a n d C h in a , w h o a ch ie ve d a ru n o f 3 ,0 0 0 ye a rs o r m o re . Jo se p h Ta in te r, in h is b o o k o n p a st co lla p se s, n ickn a m e s th re e kin d s o f tro u b le th e R u n a w a y T ra in , th e D in o sa u r, a n d th e H o u se o f C a rd s. T h e se u su a lly a ct to g e th e r.1 T h e S u m e ria n s’ irrig a tio n w a s ce rta in ly a ru n a w a y tra in , a d isa stro u s co u rse fro m w h ich th e y co u ld n o t d e via te ; th e ru le rs’ fa ilu re to ta ckle th e p ro b le m q u a lifie s th e m a s d in o sa u rs, a n d th e civiliza tio n ’s sw ift a n d irre p a ra b le fa ll sh o w s it to h a ve b e e n a h o u se o f ca rd s. M u ch th e sa m e ca n b e sa id o f th e o th e r fa ilu re s. W e a re fa ce d b y so m e th in g d e e p e r th a n m ista ke s a t a n y p a rticu la r tim e o r p la ce . T h e in ve n tio n o f a g ricu ltu re is itse lf a ru n a w a y tra in , le a d in g to va stly e xp a n d e d p o p u la tio n s b u t se ld o m so lvin g th e fo o d p ro b le m b e ca u se o f tw o in e vita b le (o r n e a rly in e vita b le ) co n se q u e n ce s. T h e first is b io lo g ica l: th e p o p u la tio n g ro w s u n til it h its th e b o u n d s o f th e fo o d su p p ly. T h e se co n d is so cia l: a ll civiliza tio n s b e co m e h ie ra rch ica l; th e u p w a rd co n ce n tra tio n o f w e a lth e n su re s th a t th e re ca n n e ve r b e e n o u g h to g o a ro u n d . T h e e co n o m ist T h o m a s M a lth u s e xp lo re d th e first d ile m m a , a n d th in ke rs fro m C h rist to M a rx h a ve to u ch e d o n th e se co n d . A s th e C h in e se sa yin g h a s it: “A p e a sa n t m u st sta n d a lo n g tim e o n th e h illsid e w ith h is m o u th o p e n b e fo re a ro a st d u ck flie s in .” C iviliza tio n is a n e xp e rim e n t, a ve ry re ce n t w a y o f life in th e h u m a n ca re e r, a n d it h a s a h a b it o f w a lkin g in to w h a t I a m ca llin g p ro g re ss tra p s. A sm a ll villa g e o n g o o d la n d b e sid e a rive r is a g o o d id e a ; b u t w h e n th e villa g e g ro w s in to a city a n d p a ve s o ve r th e g o o d la n d , it b e co m e s a b a d id e a . W h ile p re ve n tio n m ig h t h a ve b e e n e a sy, a cu re m a y b e im p o ssib le : a city isn ’t e a sily m o ve d . T h is h u m a n in a b ility to fo re se e — o r to w a tch o u t fo r — lo n g -ra n g e co n se q u e n ce s m a y b e in h e re n t to o u r kin d , sh a p e d b y th e m illio n s o f ye a rs w h e n w e live d fro m h a n d to m o u th b y h u n tin g a n d g a th e rin g . It m a y a lso b e little m o re th a n a m ix o f in e rtia , g re e d , a n d fo o lish n e ss e n co u ra g e d b y th e sh a p e o f th e so cia l p yra m id . T h e co n ce n tra tio n o f p o w e r a t th e to p o f la rg e -sca le so cie tie s g ive s th e e lite a ve ste d in te re st in th e sta tu s q u o ; th e y co n tin u e to p ro sp e r in d a rke n in g tim e s lo n g a fte r th e e n viro n m e n t a n d g e n e ra l p o p u la ce b e g in to su ffe r. Y e t d e sp ite th e w re cka g e o f p a st civiliza tio n s litte rin g th e e a rth , th e o ve ra ll e xp e rim e n t o f civiliza tio n h a s co n tin u e d to sp re a d a n d g ro w . T h e n u m b e rs (in so fa r a s th e y ca n b e e stim a te d ) b re a k d o w n a s fo llo w s: a w o rld p o p u la tio n o f a b o u t 2 0 0 m illio n a t R o m e ’s h e ig h t, in th e se co n d ce n tu ry A .D .; a b o u t 4 0 0 m illio n b y 1 5 0 0 , w h e n E u ro p e re a ch e d th e A m e rica s2; o n e b illio n p e o p le b y 1 8 2 5 , a t th e sta rt o f th e C o a l A g e ; 2 b illio n b y 1 9 2 5 , w h e n th e O il A g e g e ts u n d e r w a y; a n d 6 b illio n b y th e ye a r 2 0 0 0 . E ve n m o re sta rtlin g th a n th e g ro w th is th e a cce le ra tio n . A d d in g 2 0 0 m illio n a fte r R o m e to o k th irte e n ce n tu rie s; a d d in g th e la st 2 0 0 m illio n to o k o n ly th re e ye a rs.3 W e te n d to re g a rd o u r a g e a s e xce p tio n a l, a n d in m a n y w a ys it is. B u t th e p a ro ch ia lism o f th e p re se n t — th e w a y o u r e ye s fo llo w th e b a ll a n d n o t th e g a m e — is d a n g e ro u s. A b so rb e d in th e h e re a n d n o w , w e lo se sig h t o f o u r co u rse th ro u g h tim e , fo rg e ttin g to a sk o u rse lve s P a u l G a u g u in ’s fin a l q u e stio n : W h e re a re w e g o in g ? If so m a n y p re vio u s a g e s ra n in to n a tu ra l lim its a n d cra sh e d , h o w h a s o u r ru n a w a y tra in (if th a t’s w h a t it is) b e e n a b le to ke e p o n g a th e rin g sp e e d ? I su g g e ste d e a rlie r th a t th e C h in e se a n d E g yp tia n civiliza tio n s w e re e xce p tio n a lly lo n g -live d b e ca u se n a tu re g a ve th e m la vish su b sid ie s o f e xtra to p so il, b ro u g h t in b y w in d a n d w a te r fro m e lse w h e re . B u t so m e cre d it m u st g o to h u m a n in g e n u ity. T h e n u m b e r o f m o u th s a n a cre o f la n d ca n su p p o rt, a n d th e le n g th o f tim e it ca n g o o n su p p o rtin g th e m , d o e s n o t d e p e n d o n ly o n n a tu ra l fe rtility. C iviliza tio n d id g e t b e tte r a t fa rm in g a s it w e n t a lo n g . T h e m ixe d fa rm , w ith th e u se o f a n im a l a n d h u m a n d u n g o n p lo u g h e d la n d , p ro ve d e n d le ssly su sta in a b le o n th e h e a vy lo a m s o f n o rth e rn E u ro p e . C ro p ro ta tio n a n d u se o f “g re e n m a n u re ” (th e p lo u g h in g u n d e r o f n itro g e n -fixin g p la n ts) ra ise d yie ld s co n sid e ra b ly in e a rly m o d e rn tim e s. T h e A sia n d e ve lo p m e n t o f w e t rice cu ltiva tio n w a s h ig h ly p ro d u ctive , a n d its p re cise ly le ve lle d p a d d y fie ld s e n co u ra g e d su sta in a b le tilla g e o f h illsid e s. T h e Isla m ic civiliza tio n o f S p a in n o t o n ly h a n d e d d o w n C la ssica l le a rn in g to la te -m e d ia e va l E u ro p e , it a lso re p a ire d th e e ro d e d la n d sca p e R o m e h a d le ft b y b u ild in g o live te rra ce s a n d a d va n ce d irrig a tio n sch e m e s. In th e A n d e s, th e In ca s a n d p re -In ca s b u ilt a n e fficie n t m o u n ta in a g ricu ltu re o n flig h ts o f sto n e te rra ce s w a te re d b y g la cia l stre a m s a n d fe rtilize d w ith g u a n o , w h ich th e y m in e d fro m a n cie n t se a b ird ro o ke rie s o n a rid co a sta l isla n d s. S tu d ie s o f A n d e a n te rra cin g in u se fo r th e p a st 1 ,5 0 0 ye a rs sh o w n o lo ss o f fe rtility.4 S u ch ste a d y im p ro ve m e n ts in fa rm in g m e th o d s ca n e xp la in a ste a d y rise in p o p u la tio n , b u t n o t th e g re a t b o o m o f th e p a st fe w ce n tu rie s. M e ch a n iza tio n a n d sa n ita tio n m a y a cco u n t fo r la te r sta g e s o f th e b o o m , b u t n o t its b e g in n in g s, w h ich p re -d a te fa rm m a ch in e ry a n d p u b lic h e a lth . T h e ta ke -o ff p o in t w a s a b o u t a ce n tu ry a fte r C o lu m b u s. T h is w a s w h e n th e stra n g e fru its o f th e S p a n ish co n q u e st b e g a n to b e d ig e ste d . E u ro p e re ce ive d th e g re a te st su b sid y o f a ll w h e n h a lf a p la n e t, fu lly d e ve lo p e d b u t a lm o st u n p ro te cte d , fe ll su d d e n ly in to its h a n d s. If A m e rica h a d b e e n a w ild e rn e ss, th e in va d e rs w o u ld n ’t h a ve g o t m u ch o u t o f it fo r a lo n g tim e . E ve ry fie ld w o u ld h a ve h a d to b e w o n fro m th e fo re st, e ve ry cro p im p o rte d a n d a d a p te d , e ve ry m in e d isco ve re d , e ve ry ro a d cu t a cro ss tra ckle ss d e se rt a n d ra n g e s. B u t th is u n kn o w n w o rld h a d h a d its o w n N e o lith ic R e vo lu tio n s, a n d h a d b u ilt a se rie s o f civiliza tio n s o n a rich a g ra ria n b a se . T h e th re e A m e rica s fo rm e d a co m p le x w o rld m u ch like A sia , te e m in g w ith 8 0 to 1 0 0 m illio n p e o p le — b e tw e e n a fifth a n d a fo u rth o f th e h u m a n ra ce . T h e m o st p o w e rfu l p o litie s in 1 5 0 0 w e re th e A zte c E m p ire , a city-sta te syste m d o m in a te d b y th e co n u rb a tio n kn o w n a s M e xico , a n d th e In ca E m p ire , o r Ta w a n tin su yu ,5 stre tch in g th re e th o u sa n d m ile s6 d o w n th e sp in e o f th e A n d e s a n d P a cific co a st. E a ch o f th e se h a d ro u g h ly 2 0 m illio n p e o p le — m id w a y in sca le b e tw e e n a n cie n t E g yp t a n d R o m e .7 W ith a q u a rte r-m illio n citize n s, th e A zte c ca p ita l w a s th e n th e b ig g e st city in th e A m e rica s a n d o n e o f th e h a lf d o ze n b ig g e st in th e w o rld . T h e In ca E m p ire w a s le ss u rb a n b u t tig h tly o rg a n ize d , w ith 1 4 ,0 0 0 m ile s8 o f p a ve d ro a d s, a co m m a n d e co n o m y, a n d va st te rra cin g a n d irrig a tio n p ro je cts b u ilt b y a la b o u rta x syste m , ra th e r th a n sla ve ry. T h o u g h h a rd ly a w o rke rs’ p a ra d ise , it so o n b e g a n to lo o k like o n e to su rvivo rs u n d e r S p a n ish ru le .9 B o th th e se e m p ire s w e re yo u n g , th e h e irs o f o th e rs, a n d m ig h t h a ve h a d ce n tu rie s a h e a d o f th e m if n o o u tsid e rs h a d a rrive d .10 B u t th e y a w a ite d in tru d e rs like o rch a rd s o f rip e fru it. T h e e n viro n m e n ta l h isto ria n s A lfre d C ro sb y a n d W illia m M cN e ill sh o w e d in th e 1 9 7 0 s th a t th e N e w W o rld ’s tru e co n q u e ro rs w e re g e rm s: m a ss kille rs su ch a s sm a llp o x, b u b o n ic p la g u e , in flu e n za , a n d m e a sle s. T h e se a rrive d fo r th e first tim e w ith th e E u ro p e a n s (w h o h a d re sista n ce to th e m ) a n d a cte d like b io lo g ica l w e a p o n s, killin g th e ru le rs a n d a t le a st h a lf th e p o p u la tio n s o f M e xico a n d P e ru in th e first w a ve .11 “T h e m ira cu lo u s triu m p h s” o f th e co n q u ista d o rs, C ro sb y w ro te , “a re in la rg e p a rt th e triu m p h s o f th e [sm a llp o x] viru s.”12 D e sp ite th e ir g u n s a n d h o rse s, th e S p a n ia rd s d id n o t a ch ie ve a n y m a jo r co n q u e sts o n th e m a in la n d u n til a fte r a sm a llp o x p a n d e m ic h a d sw e p t th ro u g h . B e fo re th a t, th e M a ya , A zte cs, In ca s, a n d F lo rid ia n s a ll re p e lle d th e first e ffo rts to in va d e th e m .13 S o m e ye a rs a g o , th e P e n ta g o n ca m e u p w ith p la n s fo r a S tra n g e lo via n w e a p o n ca lle d th e n e u tro n b o m b , to b e le t o ff h ig h o ve r R u ssia n citie s so th a t a se a rin g b la st o f ra d ia tio n w o u ld kill a ll th e p e o p le b u t le a ve th e p ro p e rty u n h a rm e d .14 T h e E u ro p e a n in va d e rs o f A m e rica h a d a w e a p o n o f e xa ctly th is e ffe ct in d ise a se . L e t n o b o d y sa y th e N e w W o rld w e n t d o w n w ith o u t a fig h t: th e b a ttle s fo r M e xico a n d C u sco w e re a m o n g th e h a rd e st fo u g h t in h isto ry.15 B u t o n ce th e e p id e m io lo g ica l ve il w a s to rn , th e p e o p le b e ca m e to o fe w to d e fe n d w h a t th e ir a n ce sto rs h a d b u ilt u p fo r 1 0 ,0 0 0 ye a rs. “T h e y d ie d in h e a p s like b e d b u g s,” w ro te a S p a n ish fria r in M e xico .16 E xce p t fo r th e G re a t P la in s a n d its co ld re g io n s, e ve n N o rth A m e rica w a s n o t w ild in 1 5 0 0 . H o llyw o o d m a y h a ve p e rsu a d e d u s th a t th e “typ ica l” In d ia n w a s a b u ffa lo h u n te r. B u t a ll te m p e ra te zo n e s o f th e U n ite d S ta te s, fro m th e S o u th w e st to th e S o u th e a st a n d n o rth to M isso u ri, O h io , a n d th e G re a t L a ke s, w e re th ickly se ttle d b y fa rm in g p e o p le s. W h e n th e P ilg rim s a rrive d in M a ssa ch u se tts, th e In d ia n s h a d d ie d o u t so re ce n tly th a t th e w h ite s fo u n d e m p ty ca b in s, w in te r co rn , a n d cle a re d fie ld s w a itin g fo r th e ir u se : a fo re to ke n o f th e se ttle rs’ p a ra sitic a d va n ce a cro ss th e co n tin e n t. “E u ro p e a n s d id n o t fin d a w ild e rn e ss h e re ,” th e A m e rica n h isto ria n F ra n cis Je n n in g s h a s w ritte n , “th e y m a d e o n e .”17 F o r th e S p a n ish , d ise a se w a s a b e tte r w e a p o n th a n a n e u tro n b o m b b e ca u se ju st e n o u g h A m e rin d ia n s su rvive d to w o rk th e m in e s.18 T h e A zte c a n d In ca tre a su re s w e re o n ly a d o w n p a ym e n t o n a ll th e g o ld a n d silve r th a t w o u ld flo w a cro ss th e A tla n tic fo r ce n tu rie s.19 K a rl M a rx w a s a m o n g th e first e co n o m ists to se e th a t, fin a n cia lly, th e In d u stria l R e vo lu tio n b e g in s w ith A ta h u a llp a ’s g o ld . “A n in d isp e n sa b le co n d itio n fo r th e e sta b lish m e n t o f m a n u fa ctu rin g in d u stry,” h e sa id in 1 8 4 7 , “w a s th e a ccu m u la tio n o f ca p ita l fa cilita te d b y th e d isco ve ry o f A m e rica a n d th e im p o rta tio n o f its p re cio u s m e ta ls.”20 T h e G e n o e se a n d G e rm a n b a n ke rs w h o u n d e rw ro te S p a in ’s e m p ire w e re a w a sh in b u llio n lo o kin g fo r so m e th in g to d o . M u ch fo u n d its w a y to n o rth e rn E u ro p e , fin a n cin g sh ip b u ild in g , g u n fo u n d rie s, a n d o th e r im p e ria l ve n tu re s. M u ch a lso w e n t o n E u ro p e a n w a rs — a n d w a rs b e tw e e n p e e rs a re m o th e rs o f in ve n tio n . In a w a y M a o Z e d o n g d id n ’t in te n d , p o w e r w o u ld in d e e d g ro w fro m th e b a rre l o f a g u n : fro m th e ca n n o n ’s “re e kin g tu b e ” d e sce n d s th e cylin d e r o f th e ste a m a n d p e tro l e n g in e s. G o ld a n d silve r fo rm e d ju st o n e sid e o f a tra n sa tla n tic tria n g le o f lo o t, la n d , a n d la b o u r. T h e N e w W o rld ’s w id o w e d a cre s — a n d a b o ve a ll its cro p s — w o u ld p ro ve fa r m o re va lu a b le th a n its m e ta l in th e lo n g ru n . A t th e ir T h a n ksg ivin g d in n e rs, d e vo u t A m e rica n s th a n k th e ir G o d fo r fe e d in g th e m in a “w ild e rn e ss.” T h e y th e n d e vo u r a h u g e m e a l o f tu rke y, m a ize , b e a n s, sq u a sh , p u m p kin , a n d p o ta to e s. A ll th e se fo o d s h a d b e e n d e ve lo p e d o ve r th o u sa n d s o f ye a rs b y N e w W o rld civiliza tio n s. It is a lso h a rd to im a g in e cu rry w ith o u t ch ile s, Ita lia n fo o d w ith o u t to m a to e s, th e S w iss a n d B e lg ia n s w ith n o ch o co la te , H a w a iia n s w ith o u t p in e a p p le s, A frica n s w ith o u t ca ssa va , a n d th e B ritish w ith fish b u t n o ch ip s. B e sid e s th e ir e ffe ct o n d ie t, th e n e w cro p s b ro u g h t a d ra m a tic rise in o u tp u t — in A frica a n d A sia , a s w e ll a s in E u ro p e . M a ize a n d p o ta to e s a re a b o u t tw ice a s p ro d u ctive a s w h e a t a n d b a rle y, n e e d in g o n ly h a lf th e la n d a n d w o rkfo rce to yie ld th e sa m e a m o u n t o f fo o d .21 P o p u la tio n s ro se a n d la rg e n u m b e rs o f p e o p le le ft th e fa rm , g e n e ra tin g la b o u r su rp lu se s fro m B rita in to th e G o ld C o a st.22 In th e n o rth th e se p e o p le e n d e d u p in m ills a n d fa cto rie s, w h ile in A frica th e y b e ca m e fo re ig n e xch a n g e fo r m a n u fa ctu re d g o o d s, e sp e cia lly g u n s.23 E u ro p e a n s sh ip p e d A frica n s a cro ss th e A tla n tic to re p la ce in d ig e n o u s A m e rica n s, a n d m a d e th e m g ro w su g a r, co tto n , a n d co ffe e fo r E u ro p e a n citie s.24 L a te r, E u ro p e a lso b e g a n e xp o rtin g su rp lu s p e o p le — to fill th e p ra irie s a n d p a m p a s, w h ich p ro ve d id e a l fo r g ro w in g w h e a t a n d b a rle y. W ith th e in ve n tio n o f fa rm m a ch in e ry, th e O ld W o rld g ra in s b e ca m e le ss la b o u r-in te n sive . A n d w ith th e re d isco ve ry a n d w o rld w id e u se o f g u a n o — a n o th e r g ift o f In ca a g ricu ltu re — cro p yie ld s so a re d .25 W h e n th e g u a n o d e p o sits a n d o th e r n a tu ra l fe rtilize rs w e re e xh a u ste d , co m m e rcia l fa rm in g b e ca m e a lm o st e n tire ly d e p e n d e n t o n ch e m ica l fe rtilize rs m a d e fro m o il a n d g a s. F o ssil e n e rg y n o t o n ly p o w e rs b u t fe e d s th e m o d e rn w o rld . W e a re lite ra lly e a tin g o il.26 In 1 9 9 1 W illia m M cN e ill co n clu d e d : “T h e m o d e rn su rg e o f p o p u la tio n , su sta in e d in la rg e p a rt b y th e n e w cro p s, is still g o in g o n , w ith d ra stic b u t u n fo re se e a b le e co lo g ica l re su lts.”27 In th e th irte e n ye a rs sin ce h e w ro te th a t, a b illio n m o re p e o p le h a ve a p p e a re d o n e a rth — th e sa m e a s th e w h o le p o p u la tio n a t th e b e g in n in g o f m e ch a n iza tio n in 1 8 2 5 . O n e b illio n m a y b e clo se to th e n u m b e r w h o co u ld fe e d th e m se lve s in d e fin ite ly b y m u scle p o w e r if in d u stria l civiliza tio n w e re to fa il. W e w ill n e ve r kn o w w h e n , w h e re , o r e ve n w h e th e r th e In d u stria l R e vo lu tio n w o u ld h a ve h a p p e n e d h a d A m e rica n o t e xiste d . M y g u e ss is th a t it w o u ld — b u t la te r, m o re g ra d u a lly, a n d in a d iffe re n t w a y. It m ig h t h a ve b e g u n in C h in a ra th e r th a n in E u ro p e , o r in b o th .28 B u t th a t is fo r th e “w h a t if” sch o o l o f h isto ry. A ll w e ca n sa y is th a t th in g s w o u ld h a ve m o ve d m o re slo w ly a n d b e e n ve ry d iffe re n t. T h e w o rld w e h a ve to d a y is th e g ift o f th e N e w W o rld . T h e N e w W o rld , th e n , re a lly w a s E ld o ra d o . It w a s a lso U to p ia . E a rly re p o rts o f A m a zo n ia n so cie tie s h a d in flu e n ce d S ir T h o m a s M o re ’s b o o k o f th a t n a m e , p u b lish e d in 1 5 1 6 . A ce n tu ry la te r, th e b e stse llin g w rite r G a rcila so d e la V e g a , w h o w a s h a lf In ca , p ro m o te d h is m o th e r’s fa lle n e m p ire a s th e id e a l sta te .29 In N o rth A m e rica , th e in flu e n ce w a s m o re d ire ct, a m a tte r o f d a ily e xa m p le . T h e e a rly fro n tie r cu ltu re w a s a h yb rid , a p la ce w h e re In d ia n s g re w o rch a rd s a n d w h ite s to o k u p sca lp in g . S e ttle rs fo u g h t, tra d e d , a n d in te rm a rrie d w ith se lf-g o ve rn in g n a tive p e o p le s w h o p ra ctise d so cia l e q u a lity, fre e d e b a te in co u n cil, a n d th e ru le o f co n se n su s. “T h e ir w h o le co n stitu tio n b re a th e s n o th in g b u t lib e rty!” w ro te Ja m e s A d a ir, o f th e C h e ro ke e s, in 1 7 7 5 . B e n ja m in F ra n klin h a d m a d e sim ila r o b se rva tio n s a b o u t th e Iro q u o is C o n fe d e ra cy, w h ich h e u rg e d th e T h irte e n C o lo n ie s to e m u la te .30 T h e w h ite s w e re p a rticu la rly im p re sse d b y th e w a y d isse n te rs w o u ld sim p ly le a ve th e re st o f th e ir n a tio n a n d fo rm a n in d e p e n d e n t g ro u p . H e re — sp re a d b e fo re th e e ye s o f co lo n ists re se n tfu l o f a d ista n t cro w n — w e re fre e d o m , d e m o cra cy, a n d th e rig h t o f se ce ssio n . It w a s, a n d still is, n o t w e ll kn o w n th a t th e se n a tive d e m o cra cie s w e re la rg e ly a p o st-C o lu m b ia n d e ve lo p m e n t, b lo o m in g in th e o p e n sp a ce s le ft b y th e g re a t d yin g o f th e 1 5 0 0 s. M o st o f th e e a ste rn fa rm in g “trib e s” w e re re m n a n ts o f o n ce -p o w e rfu l ch ie fd o m s. H a d th e E n g lish co m e to A m e rica b e fo re th e d e m o g ra p h ic co lla p se , th e y w o u ld h a ve fo u n d a m o re fa m ilia r so cia l stru ctu re : lo rd s w h o live d in g re a t h o u se s a to p h u n d re d -fo o t31 e a rth e n p yra m id s, w e re ca rrie d a b o u t o n litte rs, a n d w e re b u rie d w ith sla ve s a n d co n cu b in e s.32 T h e sm a llp o x viru s, h a vin g o ve rth ro w n su ch so cie tie s a lo n g w ith th e A zte c a n d In ca e m p ire s, th e re fo re p la ye d a p re cu rso ry ro le in th e A m e rica n R e vo lu tio n . M o st u p risin g s a re sp a rke d b y w a n t; th e A m e rica n re b e ls w e re in sp ire d b y p le n ty — b y In d ia n la n d a n d In d ia n id e a ls. In m o re th a n o n e w a y, F ra n klin ’s co u n trym e n b e ca m e , a s h e ca lle d th e m , “w h ite sa va g e s.” T h e A m e rica n R e vo lu tio n in tu rn in flu e n ce d th e F re n ch R e vo lu tio n , w h ich h a d its o w n w h ite sa va g e ry kn o w n a s th e Te rro r. G o ve rn m e n ts ke e n to a vo id m o re o f th e sa m e b e g a n b ro a d e n in g th e fra n ch ise th ro u g h o u t th e fo llo w in g ce n tu ry. A m e a su re o f p a rticip a tio n filte re d g ru d g in g ly d o w n th e so cia l p yra m id , w h ile th e n e w in d u stria l e co n o m y n o u rish e d a g ro w in g m id d le cla ss.33 W e in th e lu cky co u n trie s o f th e W e st n o w re g a rd o u r tw o -ce n tu ry b u b b le o f fre e d o m a n d a fflu e n ce a s n o rm a l a n d in e vita b le ; it h a s e ve n b e e n ca lle d th e “e n d ” o f h isto ry, in b o th a te m p o ra l a n d te le o lo g ica l se n se .34 Y e t th is n e w o rd e r is a n a n o m a ly: th e o p p o site o f w h a t u su a lly h a p p e n s a s civiliza tio n s g ro w . O u r a g e w a s b a n kro lle d b y th e se izin g o f h a lf a p la n e t, e xte n d e d b y ta kin g o ve r m o st o f th e re m a in in g h a lf, a n d h a s b e e n su sta in e d b y sp e n d in g d o w n n e w fo rm s o f n a tu ra l ca p ita l, e sp e cia lly fo ssil fu e ls. In th e N e w W o rld , th e W e st h it th e b ig g e st b o n a n za o f a ll tim e . A n d th e re w o n ’t b e a n o th e r like it — n o t u n le ss w e fin d th e civilize d M a rtia n s o f H . G . W e lls, co m p le te w ith th e vu ln e ra b ility to o u r g e rm s th a t u n d id th e m in h is W a r o f th e W o rld s.35 T h e e xp e rim e n t o f civiliza tio n h a s lo n g h a d its d o u b te rs, e ve n in tim e s w h e n ch a n g e m o ve d to o slo w ly fo r m o st p e o p le to re m a rk. T h e ta le s o f Ica ru s, P ro m e th e u s, a n d P a n d o ra illu stra te th e risks o f b e in g to o cle ve r b y h a lf, a th e m e a lso kn o w n to G e n e sis.36 P e rh a p s th e m o st in sig h tfu l a n cie n t sto ry o f th is kin d — p a rticu la rly a s it co m e s fro m a civiliza tio n th a t h a d su ffe re d co lla p se — is th e “R e b e llio n o f th e To o ls” in th e M a ya cre a tio n e p ic, th e P o p o l V u h ,37 w h e re h u m a n b e in g s a re o ve rth ro w n b y th e ir fa rm a n d h o u se h o ld im p le m e n ts: A n d a ll [th o se th in g s] b e g a n to sp e a k… . “Y o u … sh a ll fe e l o u r stre n g th . W e sh a ll g rin d a n d te a r yo u r fle sh to p ie ce s,” sa id th e ir g rin d in g sto n e s… . A t th e sa m e tim e , th e ir g rid d le s a n d p o ts sp o ke : “P a in a n d su ffe rin g yo u h a ve ca u se d u s… . Y o u b u rn e d u s a s if w e fe lt n o p a in . N o w yo u sh a ll fe e l it, w e sh a ll b u rn yo u .”38 A s th e C u b a n w rite r A le jo C a rp e n tie r p o in te d o u t, th is is o u r first e xp licit w a rn in g o f th e th re a t in th e m a ch in e . S u ch w a rn in g s b e ca m e co m m o n in th e n in e te e n th ce n tu ry, w h e n , fo r th e first tim e e ve r, w re n ch in g te ch n ica l a n d so cia l ch a n g e w a s fe lt w ith in a sin g le life tim e . In 1 8 0 0 , th e citie s h a d b e e n sm a ll, th e a ir a n d w a te r re la tive ly cle a n — w h ich is to sa y th a t it w o u ld g ive yo u ch o le ra , n o t ca n ce r. N o th in g m o ve d fa ste r th a n b y w in d o r lim b . T h e so u n d o f m a ch in e ry w a s a lm o st u n kn o w n . A p e rso n fro m 1 6 0 0 tra n sp o rte d to 1 8 0 0 co u ld h a ve m a d e h is w a y a ro u n d q u ite e a sily. B u t b y 1 9 0 0 , th e re w e re m o to r ca rs o n th e stre e ts a n d e le ctric tra in s b e n e a th th e m ; m o vie s w e re flicke rin g o n scre e n s; e a rth ’s a g e w a s re cko n e d in m illio n s o f ye a rs, a n d A lb e rt E in ste in w a s w ritin g h is S p e cia l T h e o ry o f R e la tivity. E a rly in th e ce n tu ry, M a ry S h e lle y p o n d e re d th e n e w scie n ce w ith h e r F ra n ke n ste in . A n d C h a rle s D icke n s g a ve th e so cia l co sts o f in d u stry a sca ld in g a n d p re scie n t critiq u e in H a rd T im e s, a skin g w h e th e r “th e G o o d S a m a rita n w a s a B a d E co n o m ist,” a n d fo re se e in g th e n e w re lig io n o f th e b o tto m lin e : “E ve ry in ch o f th e e xiste n ce o f m a n kin d , fro m b irth to d e a th ,” h e w ro te in 1 8 5 4 , “w a s to b e a b a rg a in a cro ss a co u n te r.”39 In h is 1 8 7 2 n o ve l, E re w h o n (a n a n a g ra m o f “n o w h e re ”), S a m u e l B u tle r cre a te d a re m o te civiliza tio n th a t h a d in d u stria lize d lo n g b e fo re E u ro p e , b u t w h e re th e e ffe cts o f p ro g re ss h a d sp a rke d a L u d d ite re vo lu tio n . T h e g re a t d a n g e r, w ro te a n E re w h o n ra d ica l, w a s n o t so m u ch th e e xistin g m a ch in e s a s th e sp e e d a t w h ich th e y w e re e vo lvin g : if n o t sto p p e d in tim e , th e y m ig h t d e ve lo p la n g u a g e , re p ro d u ce th e m se lve s, a n d su b ju g a te m a n kin d . B u tle r w a s se n d in g u p D a rw in ism h e re , b u t th e a n xie tie s stirre d b y th e p a n tin g m o n ste rs o f th e S te a m A g e w e re re a l e n o u g h . Y e a rs b e fo re h e b e ca m e p rim e m in iste r, th e yo u n g B e n ja m in D isra e li h a d a n ticip a te d E re w h o n ’s fe a rs in h is n o ve l C o n in g sb y: “T h e m yste ry o f m yste rie s,” h e w ro te , “is to vie w m a ch in e s m a kin g m a ch in e s, a sp e cta cle th a t fills th e m in d w ith cu rio u s a n d e ve n a w fu l sp e cu la tio n .”40 A s th e V icto ria n a g e ru sh e d o n , m a n y w rite rs b e g a n to a sk, “W h e re a re w e g o in g ? ” If so m u ch w a s h a p p e n in g so q u ickly in th e ir ce n tu ry, w h a t m ig h t h a p p e n in th e n e xt? B u tle r, W e lls, W illia m M o rris, R ich a rd Je ffe rie s, a n d m a n y o th e rs m ixe d fa n ta sy, sa tire , a n d a lle g o ry, cre a tin g a g e n re kn o w n a s th e scie n tific ro m a n ce . In T h e T im e M a ch in e o f 1 8 9 5 , W e lls se n t a tra ve lle r to a d ista n t fu tu re w h e re th e h u m a n ra ce h a s sp lit in to tw o sp e cie s, th e E lo i a n d th e M o rlo cks. T h e E lo i a re a syb a ritic u p p e r cla ss livin g b ra in le ssly o n th e in d u stria l to il o f th e M o rlo cks, n e ve r g u e ssin g th a t th e se u n d e rg ro u n d su b h u m a n s — se e m in g ly th e ir sla ve s — a re in fa ct ra isin g th e m fo r m e a t. In h is N e w s fro m N o w h e re , W illia m M o rris d re a m t u p a p o st- in d u stria l N e w A g e — a p re -R a p h a e lite U to p ia o f h o n e st w o rkm a n sh ip , g o o d d e sig n , a n d fre e lo ve — fro m w h ich h e a tta cke d th e first g re a t w a ve o f g lo b a liza tio n , th e w o rld m a rke t ru le d b y th e ste a m sh ip , th e te le g ra p h , a n d th e B ritish E m p ire : T h e h a p p in e ss o f th e w o rkm a n a t h is w o rk, h is m o st e le m e n ta ry co m fo rt a n d b a re h e a lth … . d id n o t w e ig h a g ra in o f sa n d in th e b a la n ce a g a in st th is d ire n e ce ssity o f “ch e a p p ro d u ctio n ” o f th in g s, a g re a t p a rt o f w h ich w e re n o t w o rth p ro d u cin g a t a ll… . T h e w h o le co m m u n ity w a s ca st in to th e ja w s o f th is ra ve n in g m o n ste r, th e W o rld -M a rke t. W h ile w e m a y le a rn fro m th e p a st, w e d o n ’t se e m to le a rn m u ch . T h a t la st g e n e ra tio n b e fo re th e F irst W o rld W a r — th e tim e o f th e yo u n g E in ste in , O sca r W ild e , a n d Jo se p h C o n ra d ’s n o ve l o f te rro rism , T h e S e cre t A g e n t — w a s in m a n y w a ys a tim e like o u rs: a n o ld ce n tu ry g ro w n tire d ; a n e w ce n tu ry in w h ich m o ra litie s a n d ce rta in tie s w e re w ith e rin g , b o m b e rs w e re lu rkin g in th e sh a d o w s, a n d in d u stria lists d e cla im in g fro m th e ir m a n sio n s th a t u n fe tte re d fre e e n te rp rise w o u ld b rin g a N e w Je ru sa le m to a ll. M o re th o u g h tfu l o b se rve rs se n se d th a t ch a n g e w a s ru n n in g o u t o f co n tro l, a n d b e g a n to fe a r th a t w ith th e p o w e rs o f in d u stry, m a n kin d h a d fo u n d th e m e a n s to su icid e . T h e y sa w jin g o istic n a tio n -sta te s e n g a g e d in a n a rm s ra ce . T h e y sa w so cia l e xp lo ita tio n a n d va st u rb a n slu m s, co n ta m in a te d a ir a n d w a te r, a n d “civiliza tio n ” b e in g co n fe rre d o n “sa va g e s” th ro u g h th e b a rre ls o f m a ch in e g u n s.41 W h a t if th o se g u n s w e re tu rn e d n o t o n Z u lu s o r S io u x b u t o n o th e r E u ro p e a n s? W h a t if th e d e g ra d a tio n o f th e slu m s ca u se d d e g e n e ra tio n o f th e h u m a n ra ce ? W h a t, e xa ctly, w a s th e p o in t o f a ll th is e co n o m ic o u tp u t if, fo r so m a n y p e o p le , it m e a n t d e ra cin a tio n , m ise ry, a n d filth ? B y th e e n d o f h is vo ya g e , W e lls’s T im e T ra ve lle r re g a rd s civiliza tio n a s “o n ly a fo o lish h e a p in g th a t m u st in e vita b ly … d e stro y its m a ke rs in th e e n d .” N o d o u b t m a n y w ill sa y th a t w e sta n d h e re to p ro ve th o se g lo o m y V icto ria n s w ro n g . B u t d o w e ? T h e y m a y h a ve b e e n w ro n g o n th e d e ta ils th e y im a g in e d fo r o u r tim e s, b u t th e y w e re rig h t to fo re se e tro u b le . Ju st a h e a d la y th e G re a t W a r a n d 1 2 m illio n d e a d ,42 th e R u ssia n R e vo lu tio n , th e G re a t S lu m p — le a d in g to H itle r, th e d e a th ca m p s, th e S e co n d W o rld W a r (w ith 5 0 m illio n d e a d ), th e a to m b o m b . A n d th e se in tu rn to th e K o re a n W a r, th e C o ld W a r, th e n e a r- fa ta l C u b a n M issile C risis, V ie tn a m , C a m b o d ia , R w a n d a . E ve n th e m o st p e ssim istic V icto ria n m ig h t h a ve b e e n su rp rise d to le a rn th a t th e tw e n tie th ce n tu ry w o u ld sla u g h te r m o re th a n 1 0 0 m illio n in its w a rs — tw ice th e e n tire p o p u la tio n o f th e R o m a n E m p ire .43 T h e p rice o f h isto ry d o e s in d e e d g o u p . T h e V icto ria n scie n tific ro m a n ce s h a d tw o m o d e rn d e sce n d a n ts: m a in stre a m scie n ce fictio n , a n d p ro fo u n d so cia l sa tire se t in n ig h tm a re fu tu re s. T h e la tte r in clu d e s se ve ra l o f th e la st ce n tu ry’s m o st im p o rta n t b o o ks: A ld o u s H u xle y’s B ra ve N e w W o rld , G e o rg e O rw e ll’s N in e te e n E ig h ty-fo u r, J. M . C o e tze e ’s W a itin g fo r th e B a rb a ria n s, a n d a n u m b e r o f p o st-n u cle a r w a ste la n d s, o f w h ich R u sse ll H o b a n ’s R id d le y W a lke r h a s to b e th e m a ste rp ie ce . W ith th e n u cle a r th re a t fa d in g (m a yb e ), m o d e rn a p o ca lyp tic n o ve ls h a ve re visite d co n ce rn s first ra ise d b e fo re H iro sh im a — e sp e cia lly th e risks o f n e w te ch n o lo g y, a n d h o w o u r sp e cie s m ig h t su rvive w ith o u t a b a n d o n in g its h u m a n ity fo r a n tlike o rd e r. (P e rh a p s th e m o st d istu rb in g a sp e ct o f B ra ve N e w W o rld w a s th e stro n g ca se H u xle y m a d e fo r th e d e vil o f o rd e r, a ca se h a rd e r to a n sw e r n o w th a n in 1 9 3 2 .) T h e cla n kin g m o n ste rs o f E re w h o n h a ve ta ke n su b tle r fo rm s th a t th re a te n th e w h o le b io sp h e re : clim a te d isru p tio n , to xic w a ste , n e w p a th o g e n s, n a n o te ch n o lo g y, cyb e rn e tics, g e n e tic e n g in e e rin g . O n e o f th e d a n g e rs o f w ritin g a d ysto p ia n sa tire is h o w d e p re ssin g it is w h e n yo u g e t th in g s rig h t. Te n ye a rs a g o I b e g a n w o rk o n m y n o ve l A S cie n tific R o m a n ce , a title I ch o se b e ca u se I w a n te d to a ckn o w le d g e th e V icto ria n s, a n d b e ca u se m y th e m e w a s o u r a m o u r fo u w ith scie n ce . F o r sa tirica l p u rp o se s, I m a d e w h a t I th o u g h t w e re w ild e xtra p o la tio n s fro m th in g s in th e n e w s. I h a d a ch a ra cte r d ie o f m a d co w d ise a se , th in kin g th a t in th e fin a l d ra ft I w o u ld p ro b a b ly h a ve to kill h e r o ff w ith so m e th in g le ss fa r-fe tch e d . B y th e tim e th e b o o k w a s p u b lish e d in 1 9 9 7 , d o ze n s o f p e o p le re a lly h a d d ie d o f m a d co w .44 O th e r e le m e n ts o f th e sa tire — clim a te ch a n g e th a t tu rn s w in try L o n d o n in to a tro p ica l sw a m p , a ra ce o f g e n e tica lly m o d ifie d su rvivo rs, a n d a G M g ra ss th a t d o e sn ’t n e e d m o w in g b e ca u se it h a s th e se lf-lim itin g p ro p e rtie s o f p u b ic h a ir — n o lo n g e r se e m q u ite th e fu n h o u se m irro rs th e y w e re w h e n I b e g a n . Ju st a fe w m o n th s a g o , so m e th in g m o re sp e cific ca m e to h a u n t m e . In th e ju n g ly ru in s o f L o n d o n , m y p ro ta g o n ist fin d s a stre e t b lo cke d o ff a n d b u ild in g s fo rtifie d w ith co n cre te sla b s. H e re , h e d e d u ce s, a n e m b a ttle d B ritish g o ve rn m e n t m u st h a ve sp e n t its fin a l d a ys in th e 2 0 3 0 s.45 E a rlie r th is ye a r, I re a d in th e p a p e r th a t To n y B la ir’s g o ve rn m e n t is p la n n in g to su rro u n d th e H o u se s o f P a rlia m e n t w ith a fifte e n -fo o t46 co n cre te w a ll a n d ra zo r w ire .47 I d o n ’t w a n t to b e a p ro p h e t, a n d I ce rta in ly d o n ’t cla im to b e . It d o e sn ’t ta ke N o stra d a m u s to fo re se e th a t w a lls w ill g o u p in tim e s o f crisis — th o u g h th e th icke st w a lls a re in th e m in d . A te llin g fe a tu re o f th e re a l m a d co w d isa ste r w a s h o w lo n g th e B ritish g o ve rn m e n t d id n o th in g e xce p t h o p e fo r th e b e st. In h e r re ce n t d ysto p ia , O ryx a n d C ra ke , w h ich co n ce n tra te s o n b io te ch n o lo g y, M a rg a re t A tw o o d a lso p o rtra ys th e co lla p se o f civiliza tio n in th e n e a r fu tu re . O n e o f h e r ch a ra cte rs a sks, “A s a sp e cie s w e ’re d o o m e d b y h o p e , th e n ? ”48 B y h o p e ? W e ll, ye s. H o p e d rive s u s to in ve n t n e w fixe s fo r o ld m e sse s, w h ich in tu rn cre a te e ve r m o re d a n g e ro u s m e sse s. H o p e e le cts th e p o liticia n w ith th e b ig g e st e m p ty p ro m ise ; a n d a s a n y sto ckb ro ke r o r lo tte ry se lle r kn o w s, m o st o f u s w ill ta ke a slim h o p e o ve r p ru d e n t a n d p re d icta b le fru g a lity. H o p e , like g re e d , fu e ls th e e n g in e o f ca p ita lism . Jo h n S te in b e ck o n ce sa id th a t so cia lism n e ve r to o k ro o t in A m e rica b e ca u se th e p o o r se e th e m se lve s n o t a s a n e xp lo ite d p ro le ta ria t b u t a s te m p o ra rily e m b a rra sse d m illio n a ire s. T h is h e lp s e xp la in w h y A m e rica n cu ltu re is so h o stile to th e id e a o f lim its, w h y vo te rs d u rin g th e la st e n e rg y sh o rta g e re je cte d th e sw e a te r-w e a rin g Jim m y C a rte r a n d e le cte d R o n a ld R e a g a n , w h o sco ffe d a t co n se rva tio n a n d to ld th e m it w a s “still m o rn in g in A m e rica .”49 N o w h e re d o e s th e m yth o f p ro g re ss h a ve m o re fe rve n t b e lie ve rs. M a rx w a s su re ly rig h t w h e n h e ca lle d ca p ita lism , a lm o st a d m irin g ly, “a m a ch in e fo r d e m o lish in g lim its.” B o th co m m u n ism a n d ca p ita lism a re m a te ria list U to p ia s o ffe rin g riva l ve rsio n s o f a n e a rth ly p a ra d ise . In p ra ctice , co m m u n ism w a s n o e a sie r o n th e n a tu ra l e n viro n m e n t. B u t a t le a st it p ro p o se d a sh a rin g o f th e g o o d s. C a p ita lism lu re s u s o n w a rd like th e m e ch a n ica l h a re b e fo re th e g re yh o u n d s, in sistin g th a t th e e co n o m y is in fin ite a n d sh a rin g th e re fo re irre le va n t. Ju st e n o u g h g re yh o u n d s ca tch a re a l h a re n o w a n d th e n to ke e p th e o th e rs ru n n in g till th e y d ro p . In th e p a st it w a s o n ly th e p o o r w h o lo st th is g a m e ; n o w it is th e p la n e t.50 T h o se w h o tra ve lle d in th e ir yo u th , a n d h a ve g o n e b a ck to o ld h a u n ts a fte r tw e n ty o r th irty ye a rs, ca n ’t fa il to o b se rve th e m a ssive o n sla u g h t o f p ro g re ss, w h e th e r it b e th e lo ss o f fa rm s to su b u rb s, ju n g le s to ca ttle ra n ch e s, rive rs to d a m s, m a n g ro ve s to sh rim p fa rm s, m o u n ta in s to ce m e n t q u a rrie s, o r co ra l re e fs to co n d o m in iu m s. W e still h a ve d iffe rin g cu ltu re s a n d p o litica l syste m s, b u t a t th e e co n o m ic le ve l th e re is n o w o n ly o n e b ig civiliza tio n , fe e d in g o n th e w h o le p la n e t’s n a tu ra l ca p ita l. W e ’re lo g g in g e ve ryw h e re , fish in g e ve ryw h e re , irrig a tin g e ve ryw h e re , b u ild in g e ve ryw h e re , a n d n o co rn e r o f th e b io sp h e re e sca p e s o u r h a e m o rrh a g e o f w a ste .51 T h e tw e n tyfo ld g ro w th in w o rld tra d e sin ce th e 1 9 7 0 s h a s m e a n t th a t h a rd ly a n yw h e re is se lf-su fficie n t. E ve ry E ld o ra d o h a s b e e n lo o te d , e ve ry S h a n g ri-L a e q u ip p e d w ith a H o lid a y In n . Jo se p h Ta in te r n o te s th is in te rd e p e n d e n ce , w a rn in g th a t “co lla p se , if a n d w h e n it co m e s a g a in , w ill th is tim e b e g lo b a l… . W o rld civiliza tio n w ill d isin te g ra te a s a w h o le .”52 E xp e rts in a ra n g e o f fie ld s h a ve b e g u n to se e th e sa m e clo sin g d o o r o f o p p o rtu n ity, b e g u n to w a rn th a t th e se ye a rs m a y b e th e la st w h e n civiliza tio n still h a s th e w e a lth a n d p o litica l co h e sio n to ste e r itse lf to w a rd s ca u tio n , co n se rva tio n , a n d so cia l ju stice . T w e lve ye a rs a g o , ju st b e fo re th e R io e n viro n m e n ta l su m m it th a t le d to th e K yo to A cco rd o n clim a te ch a n g e , m o re th a n h a lf th e w o rld ’s N o b e l la u re a te s w a rn e d th a t w e m ig h t h a ve o n ly a d e ca d e o r so le ft to m a ke o u r syste m su sta in a b le . N o w , in a re p o rt u n su cce ssfu lly h u sh e d u p b y th e B u sh a d m in istra tio n , th e P e n ta g o n p re d icts w o rld w id e fa m in e , a n a rch y, a n d w a rfa re “w ith in a g e n e ra tio n ” sh o u ld clim a te ch a n g e fu lfill th e m o re se ve re p ro je ctio n s.53 A n d in h is 2 0 0 3 b o o k, O u r F in a l C e n tu ry, M a rtin R e e s o f C a m b rid g e U n ive rsity, A stro n o m e r R o ya l a n d fo rm e r p re sid e n t o f th e B ritish A sso cia tio n fo r th e A d va n ce m e n t o f S cie n ce , co n clu d e s: “T h e o d d s a re n o b e tte r th a n fifty-fifty th a t o u r p re se n t civilisa tio n … w ill su rvive to th e e n d o f th e p re se n t ce n tu ry … u n le ss a ll n a tio n s a d o p t lo w -risk a n d su sta in a b le p o licie s b a se d o n p re se n t te ch n o lo g y.”54 S ce p tics p o in t to e a rlie r p re d ictio n s o f d isa ste r th a t w e re n ’t b o rn e o u t. B u t th a t is a fo o l’s p a ra d ise . S o m e o f o u r e sca p e s — fro m n u cle a r w a r, fo r o n e — h a ve b e e n m o re b y lu ck th a n ju d g m e n t, a n d a re n o t fin a l.55 O th e r p ro b le m s h a ve b e e n sid e -ste p p e d b u t n o t so lve d . T h e fo o d crisis, fo r e xa m p le , h a s m e re ly b e e n p o stp o n e d b y sw itch in g to h yb rid se e d a n d ch e m ica l fa rm in g , a t g re a t co st to so il h e a lth a n d p la n t d ive rsity.56 F o llo w in g th e a tta cks o f S e p te m b e r 11 th , 2 0 0 1 , th e w o rld ’s m e d ia a n d p o liticia n s fo cu se d u n d e rsta n d a b ly o n te rro rism . T w o th in g s n e e d to b e sa id h e re . F irst, te rro rism is a sm a ll th re a t co m p a re d w ith h u n g e r, d ise a se , o r clim a te ch a n g e .57 T h re e th o u sa n d d ie d in th e U n ite d S ta te s th a t d a y; 2 5 ,0 0 0 d ie e ve ry d a y in th e w o rld fro m co n ta m in a te d w a te r a lo n e . E a ch ye a r, 2 0 m illio n ch ild re n a re m e n ta lly im p a ire d b y m a ln o u rish m e n t.58 E a ch ye a r, a n a re a o f fa rm la n d g re a te r th a n S co tla n d is lo st to e ro sio n a n d u rb a n sp ra w l, m u ch o f it in A sia . S e co n d , te rro rism ca n n o t b e sto p p e d b y a d d re ssin g sym p to m s a n d n o t th e ca u se . V io le n ce is b re d b y in ju stice , p o ve rty, in e q u a lity, a n d o th e r vio le n ce . T h is le sso n w a s le a rn t ve ry p a in fu lly in th e first h a lf o f th e tw e n tie th ce n tu ry, a t a co st o f so m e 8 0 m illio n live s.59 O f co u rse , a fu ll b e lly a n d a fa ir h e a rin g w o n ’t sto p a fa n a tic; b u t th e y ca n g re a tly re d u ce th e n u m b e r w h o b e co m e fa n a tics. A fte r th e S e co n d W o rld W a r, a co n se n su s e m e rg e d to d e a l w ith th e ro o ts o f vio le n ce b y cre a tin g in te rn a tio n a l in stitu tio n s a n d d e m o cra tica lly m a n a g e d fo rm s o f ca p ita lism b a se d o n K e yn e sia n e co n o m ics a n d A m e rica ’s N e w D e a l. T h is p o licy, th o u g h fa r fro m p e rfe ct, su cce e d e d in E u ro p e , Ja p a n , a n d so m e p a rts o f th e T h ird W o rld .60 (R e m e m b e r w h e n w e sp o ke n o t o f a “w a r o n te rro r” b u t o f a “w a r o n w a n t”? ) To u n d e rm in e th a t p o st-w a r co n se n su s a n d re tu rn to a rch a ic p o litica l p a tte rn s is to w a lk b a ck in to th e b lo o d y p a st. Y e t th a t is w h a t th e N e w R ig h t h a s a ch ie ve d sin ce th e la te 1 9 7 0 s, re w ra p p in g o ld id e a s a s n e w a n d u sin g th e m to tra n sfe r th e le ve rs o f p o w e r fro m e le cte d g o ve rn m e n ts to u n le cte d co rp o ra tio n s — a p ro je ct so ld a s “ta x-cu ttin g ” a n d “d e re g u la tio n ” b y th e rig h t’s co u rtie rs in th e m e d ia , o f w h ich C a n a d a ce rta in ly h a s its sh a re . T h e co n ce it o f la isse z-fa ire e co n o m ics — th a t if yo u le t th e h o rse s g u zzle e n o u g h o a ts, so m e th in g w ill g o th ro u g h fo r th e sp a rro w s61 — h a s b e e n trie d m a n y tim e s a n d h a s fa ile d m a n y tim e s, le a vin g ru in a n d so cia l w re cka g e .62 T h e re vo lt a g a in st re d istrib u tio n is killin g civiliza tio n fro m g h e tto to ra in fo re st.63 Ta xe s in m o st co u n trie s h a ve n o t, in fa ct, b e e n lo w e re d ; th e y w e re m e re ly sh ifte d d o w n th e in co m e p yra m id , a n d d ive rte d fro m a id a n d so cia l p ro g ra m s to w a rd s m ilita ry a n d co rp o ra te o n e s. T h e g re a t A m e rica n ju d g e O live r W e n d e ll H o lm e s o n ce sa id , “I d o n ’t m in d p a yin g ta xe s; th e y b u y m e civiliza tio n .” P u b lic co n fid e n ce in a b a sic so cia l sa fe ty n e t is e sse n tia l fo r lo w e rin g b irth ra te s in p o o r n a tio n s, a n d fo r a d e ce n t so cie ty in a ll n a tio n s. T h e re m o va l o f th a t co n fid e n ce h a s se t o ff a fre e -fo r-a ll th a t is strip p in g th e e a rth . D u rin g th e tw e n tie th ce n tu ry, a s I n o te d e a rlie r in th is b o o k, th e w o rld ’s p o p u la tio n m u ltip lie d b y fo u r a n d th e e co n o m y b y m o re th a n fo rty. If th e p ro m ise o f m o d e rn ity w a s e ve n tre a d in g w a te r — in o th e r w o rd s, if th e g a p b e tw e e n rich a n d p o o r h a d sta ye d p ro p o rtio n a lly th e sa m e a s it w a s w h e n Q u e e n V icto ria d ie d — a ll h u m a n b e in g s w o u ld b e te n tim e s b e tte r o ff. Y e t th e n u m b e r in a b je ct p o ve rty to d a y is a s g re a t a s a ll m a n kin d in 1 9 0 1 .64 B y th e e n d o f th e tw e n tie th ce n tu ry, th e w o rld ’s th re e rich e st in d ivid u a ls (a ll o f w h o m w e re A m e rica n s) h a d a co m b in e d w e a lth g re a te r th a n th a t o f th e p o o re st fo rtye ig h t co u n trie s.65 In 1 9 9 8 , th e U n ite d N a tio n s ca lcu la te d th a t U S $ 4 0 b illio n , sp e n t ca re fu lly, co u ld p ro vid e cle a n w a te r, sa n ita tio n , a n d o th e r b a sic n e e d s fo r th e p o o re st o n e a rth .66 T h e fig u re m a y b e o p tim istic, a n d it m a y h a ve g ro w n in th e p a st six ye a rs. B u t it’s still co n sid e ra b ly le ss th a n th e fu n d s a lre a d y se t a sid e fo r th e o b sce n e ly w a ste fu l fa n ta sy o f a m issile sh ie ld th a t w o n ’t w o rk, isn ’t n e e d e d , ye t co u ld p ro vo ke a n e w a rm s ra ce a n d th e m ilita riza tio n o f sp a ce . C o n sid e r Ta in te r’s th re e a sp e cts o f co lla p se : th e R u n a w a y T ra in , th e D in o sa u r, th e H o u se o f C a rd s. T h e rise in p o p u la tio n a n d p o llu tio n , th e a cce le ra tio n o f te ch n o lo g y, th e co n ce n tra tio n o f w e a lth a n d p o w e r — a ll a re ru n a w a y tra in s, a n d m o st a re lin ke d to g e th e r. P o p u la tio n g ro w th is slo w in g , b u t b y 2 0 5 0 th e re w ill still b e 3 b illio n m o re o n e a rth . W e m a y b e a b le to fe e d th a t m a n y in th e sh o rt ru n , b u t w e ’ll h a ve to ra ise le ss m e a t (w h ich ta ke s te n p o u n d s o f fo o d to m a ke o n e p o u n d o f fo o d ), a n d w e ’ll h a ve to sp re a d th a t fo o d a ro u n d . W h a t w e ca n ’t d o is ke e p co n su m in g a s w e a re . O r p o llu tin g a s w e a re . W e co u ld h e lp co u n trie s su ch a s In d ia a n d C h in a in d u stria lize w ith o u t re p e a tin g o u r m ista ke s. B u t in ste a d w e h a ve e xclu d e d e n viro n m e n ta l sta n d a rd s fro m tra d e a g re e m e n ts. L ike se x to u rists w ith u n la w fu l lu sts, w e d o o u r d irtie st w o rk a m o n g th e p o o r. If civiliza tio n is to su rvive , it m u st live o n th e in te re st, n o t th e ca p ita l, o f n a tu re . E co lo g ica l m a rke rs su g g e st th a t in th e e a rly 1 9 6 0 s, h u m a n s w e re u sin g a b o u t 7 0 p e r ce n t o f n a tu re ’s ye a rly o u tp u t; b y th e e a rly 1 9 8 0 s, w e ’d re a ch e d 1 0 0 p e r ce n t; a n d in 1 9 9 9 , w e w e re a t 1 2 5 p e r ce n t.67 S u ch n u m b e rs m a y b e im p re cise , b u t th e ir tre n d is cle a r — th e y m a rk th e ro a d to b a n kru p tcy. N o n e o f th is sh o u ld su rp rise u s a fte r re a d in g th e flig h t re co rd e rs in th e w re cka g e o f cra sh e d civiliza tio n s; o u r p re se n t b e h a vio u r is typ ica l o f fa ile d so cie tie s a t th e ze n ith o f th e ir g re e d a n d a rro g a n ce . T h is is th e d in o sa u r fa cto r: h o stility to ch a n g e fro m ve ste d in te re sts, a n d in e rtia a t a ll so cia l le ve ls.68 G e o rg e S o ro s, th e re fo rm e d cu rre n cy sp e cu la to r, ca lls th e e co n o m ic d in o sa u rs “m a rke t fu n d a m e n ta lists.” I’m u n e a sy w ith th is te rm b e ca u se so fe w o f th e m a re tru e b e lie ve rs in fre e m a rke ts — p re fe rrin g m o n o p o lie s, ca rte ls, a n d g o ve rn m e n t co n tra cts.69 B u t h is p o in t is w e ll ta ke n . T h e id e a th a t th e w o rld m u st b e ru n b y th e sto ck m a rke t is a s m a d a s a n y o th e r fu n d a m e n ta list d e lu sio n , Isla m ic, C h ristia n , o r M a rxist. In th e ca se o f E a ste r Isla n d , th e sta tu e cu lt b e ca m e a se lf- d e stru ctive m a n ia , a n id e o lo g ica l p a th o lo g y. In th e U n ite d S ta te s, m a rke t e xtre m ism (w h ich o n e m ig h t e xp e ct to b e p u re ly m a te ria list, a n d th e re fo re o p e n to ra tio n a l se lf-in te re st) h a s cro ss-b re d w ith e va n g e lica l m e ssia n ism to fig h t in te llig e n t p o licy o n m e ta p h ysica l g ro u n d s. M a in stre a m C h ristia n ity is a n a ltru istic fa ith , ye t th is o ffsh o o t is a ctive ly h o stile to th e p u b lic g o o d : a kin d o f so cia l D a rw in ism b y p e o p le w h o h a te D a rw in . P re sid e n t R e a g a n ’s se cre ta ry o f th e in te rio r to ld C o n g re ss n o t to b o th e r w ith th e e n viro n m e n t b e ca u se , in h is w o rd s, “I d o n ’t kn o w h o w m a n y fu tu re g e n e ra tio n s w e ca n co u n t o n u n til th e L o rd re tu rn s.”70 G e o rg e W . B u sh su rro u n d e d h im se lf w ith sim ila r m in d s a n d p u lle d o u t o f th e K yo to A cco rd o n clim a te ch a n g e .71 A d o lf H itle r o n ce g le e fu lly e xcla im e d , “W h a t lu ck fo r th e ru le rs th a t th e p e o p le d o n o t th in k!” W h a t ca n w e d o w h e n th e ru le rs w ill n o t th in k? C iviliza tio n s o fte n fa ll q u ite su d d e n ly — th e H o u se o f C a rd s e ffe ct — b e ca u se a s th e y re a ch fu ll d e m a n d o n th e ir e co lo g ie s, th e y b e co m e h ig h ly vu ln e ra b le to n a tu ra l flu ctu a tio n s. T h e m o st im m e d ia te d a n g e r p o se d b y clim a te ch a n g e is w e a th e r in sta b ility ca u sin g a se rie s o f cro p fa ilu re s in th e w o rld ’s b re a d b a ske ts. D ro u g h ts, flo o d s, fire s, a n d h u rrica n e s a re risin g in fre q u e n cy a n d se ve rity. T h e p o llu tio n su rg e s ca u se d b y th e se — a n d b y w a rs — a d d to th e g yre o f d e stru ctio n . M e d ica l e xp e rts w o rry th a t n a tu re m a y sw a t u s w ith d ise a se : b illio n s o f o ve rcro w d e d p rim a te s, m a n y sick, m a ln o u rish e d , a n d co n n e cte d b y a ir tra ve l, a re a fre e lu n ch w a itin g fo r a n im b le m icro b e . “M o th e r N a tu re a lw a ys co m e s to th e re scu e o f a so cie ty stricke n w ith … o ve rp o p u la tio n ,” A lfre d C ro sb y sa rd o n ica lly o b se rve d , “a n d h e r m in istra tio n s a re n e ve r g e n tle .”72 T h e ca se fo r re fo rm th a t I h a ve trie d to m a ke is n o t b a se d o n a ltru ism , n o r o n sa vin g n a tu re fo r its o w n sa ke . I h a p p e n to b e lie ve th a t th e se a re m o ra l im p e ra tive s, b u t su ch a rg u m e n ts cu t a g a in st th e g ra in o f h u m a n d e sire . T h e m o st co m p e llin g re a so n fo r re fo rm in g o u r syste m is th a t th e syste m is in n o o n e ’s in te re st. It is a su icid e m a ch in e . A ll o f u s h a ve so m e d in o sa u r in e rtia w ith in u s, b u t I h o n e stly d o n ’t kn o w w h a t th e a ctivist “d in o sa u rs” — th e h a rd m e n a n d w o m e n o f B ig O il a n d th e fa r rig h t — th in k th e y a re d o in g . T h e y h a ve ch ild re n a n d g ra n d ch ild re n w h o w ill n e e d sa fe fo o d a n d cle a n a ir a n d w a te r, a n d w h o m a y w ish to se e livin g o ce a n s a n d fo re sts. W e a lth ca n b u y n o re fu g e fro m p o llu tio n ; p e sticid e s sp ra ye d in C h in a co n d e n se in A n ta rctic g la cie rs a n d R o cky M o u n ta in ta rn s. A n d w e a lth is n o sh ie ld fro m ch a o s, a s th e su rp rise o n e a ch h a u g h ty fa ce th a t ro lle d fro m th e g u illo tin e m a d e cle a r. T h e re ’s a sa yin g in A rg e n tin a th a t e a ch n ig h t G o d cle a n s u p th e m e ss th e A rg e n tin e s m a ke b y d a y. T h is se e m s to b e w h a t o u r le a d e rs a re co u n tin g o n . B u t it w o n ’t w o rk. T h in g s a re m o vin g so fa st th a t in a ctio n itse lf is o n e o f th e b ig g e st m ista ke s. T h e 1 0 ,0 0 0 -ye a r e xp e rim e n t o f th e se ttle d life w ill sta n d o r fa ll b y w h a t w e d o , a n d d o n ’t d o , n o w . T h e re fo rm th a t is n e e d e d is n o t a n ti-ca p ita list, a n ti- A m e rica n , o r e ve n d e e p e n viro n m e n ta list; it is sim p ly th e tra n sitio n fro m sh o rt-te rm to lo n g -te rm th in kin g . F ro m re ckle ssn e ss a n d e xce ss to m o d e ra tio n a n d th e p re ca u tio n a ry p rin cip le . T h e g re a t a d va n ta g e w e h a ve , o u r b e st ch a n ce fo r a vo id in g th e fa te o f p a st so cie tie s, is th a t w e kn o w a b o u t th o se p a st so cie tie s. W e ca n se e h o w a n d w h y th e y w e n t w ro n g . H o m o sa p ie n s h a s th e in fo rm a tio n to kn o w itse lf fo r w h a t it is: a n Ice A g e h u n te r o n ly h a lf- e vo lve d to w a rd s in te llig e n ce ; cle ve r b u t se ld o m w ise . W e a re n o w a t th e sta g e w h e n th e E a ste r Isla n d e rs co u ld still h a ve h a lte d th e se n se le ss cu ttin g a n d ca rvin g , co u ld h a ve g a th e re d th e la st tre e s’ se e d s to p la n t o u t o f re a ch o f th e ra ts. W e h a ve th e to o ls a n d th e m e a n s to sh a re re so u rce s, cle a n u p p o llu tio n , d isp e n se b a sic h e a lth ca re a n d b irth co n tro l, se t e co n o m ic lim its in lin e w ith n a tu ra l o n e s. If w e d o n ’t d o th e se th in g s n o w , w h ile w e p ro sp e r, w e w ill n e ve r b e a b le to d o th e m w h e n tim e s g e t h a rd . O u r fa te w ill tw ist o u t o f o u r h a n d s. A n d th is n e w ce n tu ry w ill n o t g ro w ve ry o ld b e fo re w e e n te r a n a g e o f ch a o s a n d co lla p se th a t w ill d w a rf a ll th e d a rk a g e s in o u r p a st. N o w is o u r la st ch a n ce to g e t th e fu tu re rig h t.